「10U War God」 Collective Charge, Betting on Trump's Law-Breaking 'Unsealed' Epstein Files

By: theblockbeats.news|2025/12/08 17:46:03

BlockBeats News, December 8th: The prediction market on Polymarket regarding "Will Trump release Epstein files by December 19th/31st?" is currently in a tug-of-war between legal clarity and market cautious expectations. Trump signed the Epstein Transparency Act on November 19th, which explicitly requires the Department of Justice (DOJ) to release all unclassified documents within 30 days of the signing. This means the statutory deadline for document release is December 19th.

However, despite the legal requirement for the documents to be released by the 19th of this month, the probability of "release on December 19th" is currently only hovering around 56%, and the probability of "release by December 31st" is only 70%. This uncertainty is mainly due to the stringent settlement rules of this market: the ruling requires the documents to be proactively released by the executive branch through official websites, press releases, etc., and must contain substantive content regarding Jeffrey Epstein's illegal activities. Unsealing by federal courts, release by Congress, or metadata without substantive content do not meet the requirements.

The market is generally concerned that while the DOJ must comply with the act, it must also edit portions of the documents that involve victim and personal identity information. This is a time-consuming process and may lead to legal disputes, and any challenge to the editing scope could result in the documents not being made public within the statutory deadline in a manner compliant with settlement rules, leading to a settlement of "no" in the market.

In this environment full of uncertainty, three traders holding "No" shares are particularly noteworthy, and their trading styles indicate a strong belief:

0xtherealbatman holds $4,000 worth of 19th "No" at an average price of 44c, with a historical average position size of less than $10.

ohawaffle holds $4,900 worth of 19th "No" at an average price of 43c, with a historical average position size of $60.

VT2025 holds nearly $2,000 worth of 31st "No" at an average price of 26c, with a historical average position size of $50.

All three traders have a position concentration of over 90% and are heavily betting that the documents will not be released within 2025 or that the released documents will not meet the settlement rules of the market.

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