After SBF's Cellmate Receives Pardon, Intense Advocacy Follows; Market Predicts Slim Chance of Release This Year

BlockBeats News, December 5th, according to PolyBeats monitoring, on December 2nd, Trump pardoned the former President of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández (JOH), who was previously serving a sentence in New York for cocaine smuggling. Interestingly, FTX founder SBF, who was arrested in 2022, was a former cellmate of JOH.

3 hours ago, SBF posted on X stating that he had spent a significant amount of time helping JOH prepare for trial, reviewing evidence, and even drafting legal documents. In the post, SBF described JOH as the "most innocent prisoner he had ever seen, including himself."

There is speculation that SBF's high-profile statement may be aimed at emphasizing his behind-the-scenes role in JOH's release, indicating his support for Trump's pardon policy, potentially paving the way for his own pardon or commutation. It is reported that since early 2025, SBF's family has been openly lobbying Trump and arranging meetings with his allies.

However, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the question "Will Trump pardon SBF in 2025?" has remained largely unaffected, still at an extremely low level of about 2%. Most traders believe that SBF's involvement in an approximately $8 billion fraud case has had a significantly negative impact on the crypto industry and users, hence the likelihood of him being pardoned is very low.