Analyst: Historical patterns may repeat, and the price of Bitcoin could drop to $33,000

According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin will repeat the historical "sell in May" pattern in 2026. In the midterm election years of 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin experienced significant declines in May, with drops of approximately 30% and 70%, respectively. Analyst Merlijn Enkelaar warned that the historical pattern may repeat, and Bitcoin's price could drop to $33,000; Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson also pointed out that if Bitcoin remains below $78,000, the probability of a new wave of capitulation increases.

However, CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko believes that past crashes were due to specific shocks such as the Mt. Gox incident, China's ICO regulations, the Federal Reserve tightening policies, and the collapse of Terra/FTX, rather than calendar patterns. He stated that the launch of spot ETFs, corporate asset allocation, and the advancement of the CLARITY Act have significantly expanded the institutional buyer base, and he expects that this time there will not be a 70%-80% deep retracement. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe indicated that $76,000 is the current key support level, and if it is lost, further downward pressure will be faced.