Analyst: It is expected that Bitcoin ETF will continue the trend of capital outflow in June, stabilizing or turning to slight inflow in mid to late June

Last week, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF reported a net outflow of $1.72 billion, experiencing the largest single-week net outflow since February 2025. The largest Bitcoin ETF by net assets, BlackRock's IBIT, recorded an outflow of $1.34 billion last week, marking the largest single-week net outflow since its launch in January 2024. Overall, the ETF continued the negative outflow trend that began in May, ultimately recording a monthly net outflow of $2.43 billion in May.

Andri Fauzan Adziima, head of research at Bitrue Research Institute, stated that the main driver of last week's ETF outflows was macroeconomic headlines, particularly recent U.S. employment data. The strong May 2026 (non-farm payroll) report confirmed the resilience of the labor market, lowering the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the short term and pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, making income-generating bonds much more attractive than non-yielding Bitcoin.

Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties have triggered widespread risk-averse sentiment in recent trading days, affecting not only the digital asset market but also other sectors including artificial intelligence, tech stocks, and gold. It is expected that the outflow pressure will continue in early June, but will stabilize or turn slightly positive by mid to late June, as panic sentiment bottoms out, seasonal factors in June provide some support, and any macro-level easing will trigger inflows.