Analyst: This Middle East crisis may be different; do not underestimate the risk of the situation getting out of control

By: rootdata|2026/03/02 02:43:33

According to Jin Shi reports, the situation has become more chaotic as Iran launched missiles at U.S. military bases in Gulf cities, airlines suspended flights, and oil tankers carrying oil and other products halted passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Rong Ren Goh, portfolio manager of the fixed income team at Hanya Investment, stated that the tail risks in the Middle East have increased. The market will reprice, shifting from geopolitical shocks to regime risk shocks and long-term conflicts, rather than just retaliatory actions, unless Iran expresses a willingness to negotiate.

Analysts believe that a greater risk lies in the complacency of the market. The market has long assumed that the impact of the conflict will be limited and has dismissed comparisons of this conflict to the 1979 Iranian regime change.

Barclays analysts noted that history strongly suggests not to chase prices when conflicts erupt, but rather to "sell the news." However, it is concerning that investors have now become accustomed to the "sell the news" mentality and may underestimate the risk of the situation spiraling out of control. It is advised not to buy any dips immediately. If the stock market corrects sufficiently, such as a drop of over 10% in the S&P 500, then a buying opportunity may arise. But that time is not now.

-- Price

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