Analyst: Trump's "5-day truce" is about to end, Bitcoin support level faces a test

The U.S. Department of Defense is preparing for a "decisive strike" against Iran, while Bitcoin has once again fallen below $70,000, with a 24-hour decline of about 3%. The trigger for this drop was a report from Axios stating that the Pentagon is developing military options against Iran, including ground troops and "large-scale bombing operations." Analysts indicate that Trump's five-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure will expire on Friday, and Bitcoin's support level is very fragile.

Glassnode states that the cost basis for short-term holdings (purchased within the last month) is about $70,200, which is the current key support level; the resistance above is at the 1 to 3-month holding cost basis of $82,200. However, the accumulation of buy orders at this support level is limited, and "the probability of breaking below this level cannot be ignored until more solid buying support is established." Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, noted that the $70,200 level is more likely to be tested repeatedly rather than broken in one go, and the current price action shows "more of a defensive accumulation rather than confirming a new trend-driven market." He also warned that the current rebound is mainly driven by leverage rather than sustained spot buying, and once sentiment reverses, prices could quickly fall back.

On a macro level, the VIX futures intraday volatility has surged to 388.2, the highest in nearly six months, about four times the average level typically associated with market panic, but the S&P 500 has only had two trading days in the past three months where it moved more than 1.75% in a single day. The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the volatility priced in by the futures and options markets is far higher than the actual volatility of the S&P 500, indicating that "uncertainty is at an unprecedented level."