Bitcoin’s Next Move: Why $400K Could Be Closer Than You Think

Bitcoin’s on-chain data is lighting up bullish signals, and some of the biggest names in the crypto world are calling for explosive gains. With institutional demand ramping up and key metrics aligning, the stage is set for a potentially historic run in 2025. Here’s why $400K BTC might not be as crazy as it sounds.Trade Crypto on KrakenRealized Price Shows No Signs of Slowing DownThe realized price of Bitcoin – a critical measure of the average cost basis of all coins in circulation – continues to trend upwards. According to CryptoQuant, this is a powerful signal that the bull market is alive and well.Historically, when the realized price turns downward, it often signals the start of a bear market. However, we’re seeing the opposite – a steady rise, indicating that more investors are accumulating BTC at higher prices.Institutional Demand: This trend is being fueled by big money moves, like Strategy’s recent $1.34 billion BTC purchase. Such substantial buys are a clear sign of confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.PlanB’s Bold $400K PredictionPlanB, one of the most respected voices in the Bitcoin community, recently shared his insights on the current bull market.Bitcoin RSI = 69. I expect at least 4 months with RSI 80+, just like in previous bull markets (2021, 2017, 2013). RSI 80+ is associated with monthly returns of 40%+. 4 months of 40%+ return bring BTC from $104k to $400k ...More analysis: https://t.co/9ACtqkNFBv pic.twitter.com/Lkc2ljDAh1— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) May 12, 2025RSI ExplosionBitcoin RSI = 69. I expect at least 4 months with RSI 80+, just like in previous bull markets (2021, 2017, 2013). RSI 80+ is associated with monthly returns of 40%+. 4 months of 40%+ return bring BTC from $104k to $400k.Market StructureThere was no yellow, no distribution phase, end of the bull market phase and going to the bear market phase. There was no yellow in March... although it’s a very weird long flat bull market, the bull would continue.PlanB notes that his market cycle model shows no signs of the typical “distribution phase” that signals the end of a bull market. Instead, Bitcoin is still firmly in its bull phase, even if it has been unusually long and flat. This, he argues, points to further upside as the cycle continues to play out.200-Week Moving AverageThe 200-week moving average is at $47K... that’s a bull market building. The last phase of the bull market, the FOMO phase, is about to happen.The 200-week moving average, a key long-term support level, is currently at $47K and rising. PlanB sees this as a strong indicator that the market is entering its final, FOMO-driven phase, historically a period of rapid price appreciation.Key On-Chain Metrics to WatchPlanB points to several critical on-chain indicators as signs that Bitcoin’s bull market has more room to run:Realized PricesOverall Realized Price: $45K, up from $44K last month.2-Year Realized Price: $77K, up from $75K.5-Month Realized Price: $92K, up from $91K.Bitcoin Above Key AveragesBitcoin, the red dot, is above them all. So, all the realized prices are going up again, up, up, and the Bitcoin price is above all the realized prices. That’s how we want to see it. That’s also a sign of a bull market.Market Structure and FOMOThe 200-week moving average and the geometric average are diverging again, which is a classic bull market signal. FOMO is building.CoinCodex’s Bullish OutlookCoinCodex maintains a bullish forecast, targeting $180,000 for Bitcoin by the end of this year.Bitcoin is currently trading around $103,000, having gained over 20% in the past month alone, further reinforcing the bullish narrative.Final Thoughts: The Perfect Storm for Bitcoin?With technical indicators aligning and institutional capital pouring in, Bitcoin’s path to $400K might be closer than many think. As PlanB says:Models are wrong, some are useful. This is certainly not financial advice, and please do your own research. But in my opinion, from now on we’ll see new all-time highs.Kraken: Best crypto exchange for security & reliabilityBuy, sell, and trade 400+ cryptocurrencies with industry-leading securitySpot, Futures & Margin trading – leverage up to 5x for advanced tradersEarn rewards with staking on top cryptocurrencies24/7 customer support and high liquidity for fast tradesRegulated in the US with strong compliance and security measures13+ million users worldwideGet Started on Kraken