Citrini Analyst: Korean Firms Take Cautious Stance on 3D IC Commercialization as China's Changxin Accelerates Niche Market Positioning

On July 25, Citrini analyst Jukan pointed out that the AI semiconductor performance race is shifting from process miniaturization to advanced stacking technology, with 3D IC becoming a key technology. Samsung Foundry has recently seen a surge in inquiries for 3D ICs, but Jukan believes that 3D ICs are essentially customized DRAMs, which conflicts with the mass production model of Samsung and SK Hynix. It is expected that the two Korean firms will limit themselves to preliminary research and maintain caution regarding full commercialization. Due to U.S. semiconductor restrictions, China's Changxin Memory is struggling to enter the HBM market and is positioning 3D ICs as a differentiated breakthrough, aiming for customized memory to avoid competition with Korean firms in the bulk DRAM market. Officials from the Korean semiconductor industry stated that China has already taken the lead in producing several 3D DRAM sample chips, and Changxin, along with niche market players like Winbond, may be the first to establish this market. Jukan also noted that NVIDIA's CUDA moat is coming to an end, as the breakdown of software ecosystem barriers aligns with the trend of 3D IC customization, suggesting that the competitive landscape for next-generation AI memory may face structural reshuffling.

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