Economists Predict ECB Rate Hike to 2.50% in September

83% of economists expect the European Central Bank to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% in September; 80% of economists anticipate that the deposit facility rate will remain at 2.50% until the end of the year; 63% of economists expect the deposit facility rate to be maintained at least at 2.50% until the third quarter of 2027. Among the 69 economists surveyed, 57 (about 83%) expect a rate hike next month, which is higher than the 72% before the July meeting and 65% in June. The consensus in the market regarding another rate hike by the ECB in September is strengthening. Nomura Securities points out that the longer oil prices remain at current levels and the higher they rise, the greater the risk of second-round effects. The ECB cannot take action until it sees these effects, but it can act preemptively. The risk is that if the ECB only raises rates once, it may appear to be a mere adjustment, and monetary policy cannot operate that way. If they raise rates once, they are likely to do so again. The likelihood of another rate hike is high.

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