BlockBeats News, January 28th: According to Fortune, over the past two weeks, the probability of Rick Rieder becoming the next Chair of the Federal Reserve on Polymarket has rapidly surged to nearly 50%, significantly ahead of second-ranked Kevin Warsh (29%) and third-ranked Christopher Waller (6%). Rieder's career has been almost entirely on the front lines of the global bond market, as a trader and asset manager, actively participating in the market, interpreting, and profiting from central bank policy signals. Simply put, no one understands the bond market better than Rick Rieder. And in Trump's policy decisions, nothing is more important than "whether the bond market is up or down."
Currently, Rieder is responsible for BlackRock's global fixed income business, managing a whopping $2.4 trillion, approximately one-sixth of this global asset management giant's $14 trillion in assets under management. A former CEO who worked with Rieder described him as "extremely personable" and stated that Rieder "has a great understanding of how the markets work and is able to maintain independent judgment."
If Rieder were to take over as Chair of the Federal Reserve in May, he would face an extremely tough challenge. His position on the federal funds rate has long been clear and is closer to the Trump camp. In an interview with CNBC on January 12th, Rieder stated: "The Fed needs to bring rates down to 3% (currently at 3.50%-3.75%), I think that's closer to equilibrium." The issue is that the Federal Reserve is already implementing two policies that could push up inflation. In mid-December last year, the central bank reversed its previous quantitative tightening (QT) policy. Additionally, the Fed is also reducing the size of reserves banks are required to hold at the central bank.
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