Impact of Tariffs: Significant by End of 2026 and Easing in 2027

The impact of U.S. tariffs on prices and interest rates is gaining attention. The key issue is how long tariffs will continue to pressure prices. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% in July 2026 compared to the previous year, while the core CPI increased by 2.5%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index could return to 2% in the first half of 2027. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analyzed that the new tariffs will raise the PCE price index by about 0.8 percentage points by the end of 2026, but the effects will be minimal after 2027. The Federal Reserve acknowledges that the pass-through of tariffs appears with a lag, explaining in an April 2026 note that tariffs had a significant impact on consumer goods prices. The St. Louis Fed reported that the pass-through effect of tariffs on consumer prices is stabilizing. Tariffs affect not only the prices of imported goods but also domestic substitutes and distribution costs, which are reflected in final consumer prices. Policymakers prioritize core prices and PCE prices over headline CPI. The interest rate path may have a greater impact on the crypto market than tariffs, and if price pressures persist, the Fed's room for rate cuts may diminish. It has been confirmed that tariffs are currently raising prices in 2026, and both the IMF and CBO are weighing the possibility of easing in 2027.