Impeachment Probability for Trump at 61%, Removal Probability at 14%

The prediction market contract price regarding the impeachment of U.S. President Donald Trump stands at 61%. This figure reflects the likelihood of the House passing the impeachment articles, distinct from the Senate's conviction or removal probabilities. As of September 1, the trading volume in the Calci market for 'Will Trump be impeached?' has reached $4,522,815. The impeachment contract in Calci will settle as 'yes' if the House passes the impeachment articles before January 1, 2028. In contrast, the market for 'Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?' shows a 'yes' price of 14%. The political backdrop includes H.Res.1486 submitted by Representative Al Green, which does not imply a vote in the House or the initiation of Senate proceedings. A similar disparity is observed in Polymarket, where the market for 'Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?' is at 65%. Prediction markets trade the outcomes of events in contract form, with prices influenced by liquidity, market participant composition, contract wording, and expiration structure. The current figures represent market prices conditioned on the House passing the impeachment articles.

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