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Multiple "Insider" New Accounts Coordinate to Bet that Trump Will Not Declassify UFO Files This Year
BlockBeats News, December 8, according to PolyBeats, a prediction market titled "Will Trump Declassify UFO Files in 2025?" surged from 5% to 71% in half an hour yesterday, sparking expectations of the imminent disclosure of UFO information. The establishment of this market is based on Trump's explicit promise during the 2024 election campaign to "declassify everything" and the mandatory declassification requirements for the Department of Defense (DoD) in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).
Trading data shows that the rise in this probability began with the trader ster. He started continuously buying "Yes" shares when the market was set up, and yesterday's surge in probability was also due to his market buy orders when liquidity was low, pushing up the probability. Looking back at his trading history, his operations are more in line with the "buy low, sell high" trading pattern rather than that of an insider.
On the contrary side to ster, there are 6 accounts whose actions are more noteworthy in the 12 hours following the probability increase. They bought a total of over 20,000 "No" shares at an average price below $0.2, betting that Trump will not declassify UFO files in 2025. These accounts share a common trait: this is their only position on Polymarket.
The simultaneous actions of these six accounts with such consistent timing, price, and position size have introduced another possibility in the change of this market: these 6 accounts used AARO's website updates as a "smokescreen" to deliberately or passively boost the probability of "Yes," causing the price of "No" to drop to rock bottom, allowing them to build their positions at a low cost. These traders are well aware that the routine updates on AARO's website are not sufficient to meet the market's strict judgment standards; therefore, they are leveraging this information asymmetry for a reverse arbitrage bet, wagering that the market will ultimately settle with a "No."
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