"New Stock God" Serenity: Sivers may become a key bottleneck and "choke point" in the CPO industry

The "New Stock God" Serenity published an analysis stating that as Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology is expected to enter large-scale deployment in the second half of 2027, Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE) may play both a bottleneck and a key node role in the industry.

It pointed out that there are signs of tight supply for Continuous Wave (CW) lasers. Affected by previous orders from NVIDIA, the capacities of companies such as Sumitomo Electric, Furukawa Electric, and Win Semi are highly saturated. Meanwhile, Sivers, which adopts a fab-lite model, has effectively secured a significant amount of CW laser supply by locking in capacity with foundries like Win Semi in advance.

The analysis believes that multiple CPO routes, including ASIC projects from Ayar Labs, Jabil, Marvell Celestial, and other large-scale cloud providers, are highly dependent on Sivers' laser solutions, lacking mature alternative sources in the short term, which positions it as a structural "bottleneck" in the entire ecosystem.

Additionally, Sivers is the default reference laser design solution for GlobalFoundries, with relevant ecosystem participants including AMD and several CPO chip suppliers. Aside from vertically integrated companies like NVIDIA and Broadcom, most ASIC and commercial CPO projects are likely to revolve around Sivers.

Serenity expects that as the CPO market size grows from nearly zero to between $81 billion and $91 billion in about a year and a half, Sivers is likely to replicate Lumentum's growth path and may grow into a company with a market value of around $75 billion in the coming years. However, the above views only represent the personal judgment of market analysts.