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Next Week Macro Outlook: Fed Rate Cut Cycle Restart Imminent, Dot Plot to Become Market's New Game Changer
BlockBeats News, September 13th. Over the past week, a moderate CPI and PPI inflation report, along with a sharp increase in initial jobless claims, paved the way for the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points at the September meeting. Concerns about the labor market and prices led to a new low in the U.S. consumer confidence index since May, with long-term inflation expectations rising for the second consecutive month.
The Fed will hold its policy meeting next week. A 25 basis point rate cut itself is unlikely to trigger market volatility. If this turns out to be the case, market participants may quickly shift their focus to Fed Chair Powell's press conference and the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), especially the new "dot plot." Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week (all times are in Beijing time):
Wednesday 21:45, the Bank of Canada announces its rate decision;
Thursday 2:00, the Fed FOMC announces its rate decision and economic projections summary;
Thursday 2:30, Fed Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 19:00, the Bank of England announces its rate decision and meeting minutes;
Friday TBD, the Bank of Japan announces its rate decision;
Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda holds a monetary policy press conference.
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