Opinion: ETH Transaction Share Reaches This Cycle's Peak, ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Still Undervalued

BlockBeats News, August 24th. On-chain data analyst Murphy stated in a post that the transaction platform traffic share of ETH is calculated as the ratio of the USD value of ETH and BTC flowing in/out of all trading platforms, representing the percentage of ETH. This is also a key indicator to measure which of the two mainstream crypto assets, ETH or BTC, is receiving more attention or support from funds. On August 15th, ETH's traffic share reached as high as 48% (as shown by the red curve in the chart), marking the highest point in this cycle so far. This ratio signifies that nearly half of the funds flowing in and out of the trading platforms are in ETH, almost on par with BTC, indirectly confirming the current market's high interest in ETH.

If we compare nearly 10 years of this data with the ETH/BTC exchange rate curve (as shown by the blue curve in the chart), we can see that the red and blue lines are highly in sync. The logic is: when more funds start to focus on ETH, the exchange rate of ETH will strengthen, meaning ETH will start to outperform BTC. The calculated historical average of ETH traffic share is 26% (represented by the green line in the chart). By considering the point where the red curve starts to break above the green line as the starting point, indicating that when the traffic share curve is about to exceed the historical average, it means that the exchange rate of ETH is about to start strengthening.

For example, on September 2nd, 2020, the ETH traffic share was 28%, the ETH/BTC exchange rate was 0.038. Afterward, the traffic share continued to climb to 49.5%, and the exchange rate also rose to 0.086 synchronously. In this cycle, after reaching the bottom, the ETH traffic share broke the historical average again on May 17th, 2025, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate at 0.024. Subsequently, with a large influx of traditional capital, the ETH traffic share continued to rise, reaching a peak of 48% on August 15th.

The current ETH/BTC exchange rate is only around 0.04, far from the peak of 0.08 in 2021. Therefore, it appears that the ETH/BTC exchange rate is still undervalued, and as long as the interest from funds is maintained, theoretically, the current exchange rate still has room to rise. This information is shared for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.