SemiAnalysis Founder Predicts OpenAI and Anthropic Will Account for 70% to 80% of New Global AI Compute Power by 2028

In a recent podcast, Dylan Patel, the founder of SemiAnalysis, predicted that by 2028, OpenAI and Anthropic could account for 70% to 80% of the new global AI compute power, with the total compute capacity potentially exceeding 100GW. Currently, the two companies already represent about 30% of the annual new compute power globally, and this proportion is rapidly increasing. Patel noted that the business models of leading AI labs are changing, with a significant increase in the efficiency of AI compute output. Anthropic's current revenue per megawatt of compute power has reached approximately $50 million, and it may further rise to $100 million. This allows OpenAI and Anthropic to procure or lease compute power at high prices ranging from $25 million to $50 million per megawatt. Patel expects that global AI-related capital expenditures will reach about $1.1 trillion from 2024 to 2029, with over $500 billion needing to be financed through debt. Due to the potential return on investment in AI infrastructure being far higher than in traditional industries, tech giants may accept higher financing costs, thereby pushing up overall credit rates and exerting pressure on traditional asset valuations and highly leveraged economies. Furthermore, Patel believes that the new compute power may not primarily be used for providing model inference services externally, but rather more for internal research and development and self-improvement of models within AI labs.

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