The European Central Bank plans to raise interest rates to address inflation caused by energy shocks, which may mark its first shift towards tightening since 2023

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce an interest rate hike on Thursday, marking the first increase since 2023, in response to the energy price shocks triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. The market widely anticipates that the ECB deposit rate will be raised from 2% to 2.25% to curb the inflationary pressures arising from the constrained energy supply due to the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Data shows that the eurozone's inflation rate rose to 3.2% in May, significantly above the central bank's policy target of 2%, with rising energy prices being the main driving factor. This policy adjustment occurs against the backdrop of economic growth pressures in the eurozone, where the economy contracted in the first quarter, and some economists warn that interest rate hikes could further drag down growth and consumer confidence.

Analysts point out that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have not yet synchronized their tightening policies, and the ECB's preemptive action may reflect its greater sensitivity to energy-driven inflation. The market will closely watch President Lagarde's subsequent statements to determine whether a new tightening cycle will be initiated.