The Risk Of Israeli-Turkish Mock Dogfights Over Syria

An Israeli F-15 I fighter jet launches anti-missile flares during an air show at the graduation ... More ceremony of Israeli Air Force pilots at the Hatzerim base in the Negev desert, near the southern Israeli city of Beer Sheva, on June 27, 2019. (Photo by JACK GUEZ/AFP via Getty Images) A reported incident between Turkish and Israeli fighter jets over Syria raises the question of whether the two heavily armed American allies may end up having mock dogfights in Syria’s airspace. Turkey has engaged in such dogfights with its rival and fellow American-allied NATO member Greece over the Aegean Sea for decades now. As those dogfights have shown, such actions can result in fatalities, which, in turn, could risk escalation or even war. Overnight on May 1, Israel carried out a series of airstrikes across Syria aimed at warning the new government in Damascus against attacking the Druze minority in the country. One of these strikes landed a mere 1,640 feet from the presidential palace to drive home this point. During that strike, Turkish fighter jets reportedly carried out reconnaissance flights in the area inside Syrian airspace and sent warning signals to their Israeli counterparts using their electronic warfare systems. They made radio contact and avoided any confrontation or misunderstanding that could have inadvertently led to one. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned in April that Turkish and Israeli jets could inevitably encounter each other in Syrian airspace, and that fact necessitated establishing a deconfliction mechanism. The two began talks over such a mechanism in April before the purported May 1 encounter and have since agreed to hold another round. The United Arab Emirates has sponsored talks between the Syrian government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Israel, with a Syrian delegation visiting Israel in April. Despite these historic gestures, Israel remains wary of the intentions of the new leader in Damascus. Conversely, Turkey supports Sharaa and wants to assert control over Syria’s airspace, which translates into limiting Israeli Air Force operations in the country. Israel strongly opposes Turkey establishing a drone base with air defenses in central Syria and bombed Syrian airbases the Turkish military had scoped in early April—another unsubtle demonstration of its red lines in the country. Turkey will unlikely prove capable of establishing strategic air defenses in Syria without at least tacit consent from Israel. While the absence of any deconfliction mechanism doesn’t mean the Israeli and Turkish air force will clash—if anything, the May 1 encounter showed a degree of caution from both sides—they may end up engaging in mock dogfights in sensitive areas where they want to assert their overlapping red lines. “Even before the fall of Bashar al Assad, the Syrian airspace had been an arena of different types of incidents. Israeli-Iranian face-offs were a recurring feature for some time,” George Tzogopoulos, a senior fellow at the Centre International de Formation Européenne, told me. “Under the new circumstances, it is likely to see mock dogfights between the Israeli and the Turkish Air Force over Syria.” Mock dogfights typically involve two rival fighter jets attempting to intercept each other, often at very close quarters, to assert control over contested airspace and drive their opponents away. Turkey and Greece, both of which operate F-16s, have done this countless times in disputed airspace over the Aegean. Unsurprisingly, these have occasionally led to fatal incidents. For example, a Greek F-16 pilot lost his life in 2006 after colliding with a Turkish F-16 during a mock dogfight over the southern Aegean. Israel-Turkey relations are at historic lows since the start of the current war in Gaza in October 2023 and more recently over their divergent positions in post-Assad Syria. “Turkey and Israel have emerged as two of the primary beneficiaries of the regime change in Syria, using the shifting dynamics to expand their regional spheres of influence,” Suleyman Ozeren, a lecturer at the American University and senior fellow at the Orion Policy Institute, told me. “While Israel views the Syrian government as a significant threat to its national security, Turkey perceives it as a strategic opportunity,” he said. “Although Turkey’s move in this incident was both symbolic and serious, it lacks the level of deterrence demonstrated by Israel, whose air force has conducted strikes as far as Idlib (in northwestern Syria on the Turkish border)—sending a far more forceful message than Turkey’s limited intervention.” Furthermore, Ozeren believes that the May 1 incident suggests “much deeper and serious issues” between Israel and Turkey but believes “there is always room for a positive breakthrough” between them. “Turkey and Israel are two strong military powers in the Middle East,” he said. “But Turkey’s approach toward Israel is unlikely to resemble the mock dogfights frequently seen between Greek and Turkish fighter jets over the Aegean. “Considering Israel’s heightened threat perception and its ongoing strategy to dismantle Syrian military infrastructure—intensified since December—Turkey is expected to adopt a more cautious and restrained stance in its dealings with Israel,” he added. “Also, any military confrontation between Turkey and Israel wouldn’t be something the United States wants.” During their April 7 White House meeting, President Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he could solve any problem between Israel and Turkey, “as long as you’re reasonable, you have to be reasonable.” “ I believe that both will do everything to prevent a military incident or accident,” Tzogopoulos said of Israel and Turkey. “It is not in their interest to start a real fight about Syria.” The CIFE fellow also believes the U.S. role in this will be “critical,” especially the “personal” mediation of Trump, who has “good chemistry” with both Netanyahu and Erdogan. “Recent Israeli-Turkish talks are the result of the personal diplomacy of the U.S. president,” he said. “Of course, there are certainly limits in how far the president’s mediation could go (for example, we see that the war in Ukraine goes on despite his personal efforts).” “But still, Israel and Turkey are both interested in preventing a military crisis from breaking out,” he added. “I would not exclude such a possibility – taking the ongoing instability in Syria into account – but I wouldn’t make a bet on this.” There are other distinctions between the recurring Greek-Turkish mock dogfights and any potential Israeli-Turkish ones. The Israeli Air Force is considerably more advanced and powerful than the Hellenic Air Force. While Turkey has the third largest F-16 fleet in the world, Israel has the second. Furthermore, Israel also operates F-15s and, crucially, the fifth-generation F-35 Lighting II. Israel even has its own modified version of that advanced stealth jet. It received three new F-35Is in March, bringing its total fleet strength to 42. Conversely, no other regional country, including Turkey, currently operates any fifth-generation fighter. There are also political considerations that would further complicate any Israel-Turkey air force encounters or mock dogfights. “Turkey is a NATO member state and Israel is not. But Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East and the U.S.’ closest ally,” Tzogopoulos said. “So, how would other NATO member states respond to a possible military crisis between Israel and Turkey? Only NATO adversaries might enjoy seeing the West paralyzed on how to find an answer to this question.” “I strongly believe the U.S. will do everything to prevent a military crisis from happening.” Ozeren sees Turkey facing a much more formidable rival than the one it has repeatedly tangled with over the Aegean if it engages the Israeli Air Force over Syria. “Israel’s military and defense posture is not only significantly different but also markedly stronger than that of Greece,” he said. Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2025/05/12/the-risk-of-israeli-turkish-mock-dogfights-over-syria/