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The U.S. Government Shutdown Probability on Polymarket Significantly Decreases This Week
BlockBeats News, January 29th, according to The New York Times and Polymarket prediction data:
1. Negotiation Progress: U.S. President Trump and Senate Minority Leader Schumer are negotiating to avoid a government shutdown. The preliminary plan is to separate the Department of Homeland Security funding legislation from the appropriations bill, with the rest of the bill providing funding for military and health projects expected to pass before the Friday midnight deadline.
2. Temporary Measure: Congress will consider providing short-term funding to the Department of Homeland Security's operations to prevent a shutdown and buy time to draft a new bill.
3. Market Prediction: Influenced by the positive negotiation news, Polymarket prediction data shows that as of 12:54 on January 29, 2026, the probability of "U.S. government shutdown this Saturday" has plummeted straight to 40%, with an intraday drop of 29%.
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