Unraveling Bitcoin’s Journey to $98K: Key Obstacles and Rebound Probabilities

Key PointsBitcoin shows signs of a potential rebound, but valuation conflicts may delay a breakout above $98K.Whale accumulation rose by 26.41%, but long-term distribution remains a challenge to sustained bullish momentum.Bitcoin, also known as BTC, is hinting at a possible recovery. This is backed by a TD Sequential buy signal on the hourly chart and renewed technical momentum.Despite the price consolidating below $96,000, various on-chain and derivatives-based metrics imply that BTC could be gearing up for a significant move, given the right structural signals.Whale Accumulation and Network ActivityThe initial spark of optimism comes from fresh accumulation from whales. The Large Holder Netflow increased by 26.41% over the past week, indicating short-term conviction at current levels.However, the overall trend is still impacted by the 30-day and 90-day Netflows, which have decreased by -108.09% and -110.13% respectively. This means that despite the recent recovery, long-term distribution remains a hindrance to sustained bullish momentum.Additionally, Glassnode data revealed a significant increase in on-chain usage, with 925,914 active addresses recorded in the last 24 hours. This is the highest level of network activity in six months and indicates strong blockchain engagement.Valuation Metrics and Market HealthSeveral valuation models provide a mixed outlook. The Puell Multiple is at 1.36, suggesting that miner revenues are within a healthy range. On the other hand, the NVT and NVM ratios have increased by 50% and 26% respectively, implying that market capitalization is outpacing transaction and user activity.Also, the Stock-to-Flow Ratio has declined by 50%, indicating reduced confidence in long-term scarcity pricing. These conflicting metrics show that while fundamentals aren’t weak, the market remains in a valuation gray zone.Furthermore, Binance’s Liquidation Heatmap reveals densely packed liquidity clusters near $94,000 and $98,000. These levels represent zones of high leveraged positioning, where price volatility often intensifies.If BTC breaks above $98K, it could trigger a cascade of short liquidations that fuel upward momentum. However, a drop below $94K could liquidate long positions and drive the price lower.While Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery with increasing network activity and fresh whale inflows, long-term sell pressure, negative price-to-activity divergence, and valuation tension suggest that the path to a breakout above $98K remains uncertain. For now, momentum exists—but caution is advised until more alignment across metrics materializes.