VanEck Claims Bitcoin is Forming a Bottom

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a phase of forming a bottom in the four-year halving cycle, according to VanEck's assessment. Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, stated in an interview with CNBC, "2026 is the fourth year, and we are in a Bitcoin bear market. I believe we are currently forming a bottom." VanEck cited Bitcoin's supply cap of 21 million coins and the halving structure as the basis for this claim. The halving is a structure where the rewards miners receive for creating new blocks are periodically cut in half, serving as a variable to explain bull and bear markets. However, there are also points raised that it is difficult to explain the current price movements solely based on the halving. Since the introduction of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, the inflow and outflow of institutional funds have had a significant impact on supply and demand, and macro variables such as interest rates and dollar liquidity are also at play. With Bitcoin trading volume dropping to its lowest level since 2019, concerns about a demand vacuum have emerged. According to analysis from K33 Research, more than half of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is currently in a state of loss. In the past, there have been instances where a bottom was formed within a month after exceeding similar benchmarks near bear market lows, but the possibility of further declines also exists. This debate holds significant meaning for domestic investors, as Bitcoin's price reflects a structure influenced by the dollar exchange rate, the won exchange rate, the supply and demand of overseas spot ETFs, and the sentiment of individual investors.

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