Bitcoin: Analysts Become Optimistic Again, but History Calls for Caution

Three influential analysts believe that Bitcoin has found its floor after its drop below $60,000 in July. The return of the price around $65,000 fuels their optimism. However, the history of the market and the weight of leverage do not yet allow for a victory cry.

In Brief

• Ali Martinez, Michaël van de Poppe, and Merlijn The Trader published bullish scenarios on August 7, 2026.
• A sustainable breach of $65,000 remains the most cited technical threshold to confirm an acceleration.
• The accumulation of large wallets supports the rebound, while leverage and Bitcoin's history maintain a risk of relapse.

Bitcoin: Three Analysts Gather Around $65,000

The scenario of a bottom does not come out of nowhere. As early as August 4, 10x Research estimated that Bitcoin could confirm a market low as soon as August, provided it maintains its technical supports.

Three days later, CryptoPotato noted an unusual convergence among Ali Martinez, Michaël van de Poppe, and Merlijn The Trader.

Ali Martinez states unequivocally: "The bullish market for Bitcoin is here." The media reports that the analyst relies on improved on-chain data, the easing of selling pressure, and a buy signal from the TD Sequential on the July monthly chart.

This technical indicator counts a series of candles to spot a possible exhaustion of the current trend. It had already signaled the low of 2022, but no indicator produces an automatic result.

Michaël van de Poppe remains more conditional. On August 7, he described Bitcoin as still trapped in its consolidation zone and deemed it necessary to surpass $65,000 to accelerate towards $67,000.

Merlijn The Trader is more categorical: according to him, the three tests of the same support in the third quarter replicate the structure observed in 2023 and 2024 before a rise in the fourth quarter.

Nuance matters. These three readings do not rely on the same method and do not warrant collective confirmation. However, they tell the same story: as long as the support holds, the market can transform its long hesitation into a recovery.

Whale Purchases Give Weight to the Bullish Scenario

Accumulation strengthens the thesis of a floor, but does not yet validate it. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have added over 20,000 BTC accumulated since July 29, according to data from Santiment reported by Cointribune. As of August 7, this stock represented approximately $1.2 billion.

The movement has a simple reading. Large holders absorb part of the supply while the price remains stuck below its resistance. If sellers become scarce at the same time, even moderate demand can be enough to push Bitcoin higher. This is why Ali Martinez associates long-term accumulation with a decrease in selling pressure.

The price has also briefly regained the advantage over the monitored threshold. CoinGecko displayed $65,198 on August 10 at 6:47 UTC. This passage is not enough: Van de Poppe calls for a clear break of the recent peak, not just a simple incursion above $65,000.

The market thus has visible fuel, but ignition remains uncertain. A solid close above the zone, accompanied by spot purchases, would strengthen the recovery. A rejection would immediately place the July floor under pressure.

Bitcoin's History and Leverage Prevent a Victory Cry

The counter-scenario holds in two figures. Historical data from CoinGecko places Bitcoin at $124,739.81 on October 7, 2025, then at $58,566.09 on July 1, 2026. The drop between these two points reaches 53.05%. A rebound towards $65,000 thus repairs only a small part of the fall, not the entire trend.

CryptoPotato also reminds us of a familiar mechanism: Bitcoin often surprises when the consensus becomes too comfortable. Major rebounds have sometimes started in extreme distrust, while excessive optimism has preceded violent corrections. This historical observation does not predict anything by itself. It mainly invites us to distinguish an encouraging signal from a verdict.

Leverage adds a more immediate fragility. On Binance, futures contract volumes recently reached $57.82 billion, compared to $6.08 billion in the spot market. These products allow for multiplied exposure with less capital, but they also amplify losses and forced liquidations. A break can thus accelerate in both directions.

In summary, the accumulation of whales, the return above $65,000, and the easing of sales outline a credible floor. However, the weight of futures contracts on Binance and the extent of the correction since October leave the market under tension. The bullish scenario is gaining ground. It still needs to survive the price test.