Dollar: After Another Weekly Increase, the Market Processes Official Signals on the Exchange Rate

The foreign exchange market operated under upward pressure last Friday, and the blue dollar reached a new nominal record on Thursday, in a day marked by international uncertainty and the repercussions of presidential spokesperson Adrián Ravier's statements regarding the future of the exchange rate. This Monday, July 27, attention remains on oil and the arrival of Kristalina Georgieva in Argentina.

The official wholesale dollar is quoted at $1,489.50, while at Banco Nación, the retail dollar is sold at $1,510. Meanwhile, the average reported by the Central Bank is quoted at $1,510.79.

In the parallel market, the blue dollar gained ground last Friday, reaching $1,560 for sale and $1,540 for purchase, a new historical nominal maximum. Nevertheless, as the official exchange rate rose again, the exchange rate gap slightly narrowed to 4.77%, although it remains at the highest levels of the last six months.

Despite the movements of the last few sessions, the official dollar has accumulated an increase of only $1 in July and $28 so far this year, equivalent to a rise of 1.9%, well below the inflation accumulated during the first half of the year.

The exchange rate dynamics on Friday were influenced by the controversy generated by presidential spokesperson Adrián Ravier's statements, who claimed that a dollar between $1,700 and $1,800 "is a possibility."

Although the Ministry of Economy avoided making an official statement, the Casa Rosada sought to defuse the interpretation that the Government was anticipating a devaluation.

President Javier Milei himself came out to support Ravier during his visit to the Rural Exhibition. "He was taken out of context; he didn't say that," the president stated, adding: "The dollar will not go to $1,800; if he makes that bet, he will lose."

The message aimed to reaffirm that the exchange rate strategy has not undergone changes and that the Government's priority remains to preserve the stability of the exchange market.

Beyond the controversy, private projections also do not place the dollar around $1,800 before the end of the year. The latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) from the Central Bank forecasts a wholesale exchange rate of $1,673 for December and close to $1,805 within the next twelve months.

In the same vein, Gustavo Ber, an economist at Estudio Ber, estimated that the Government will continue to manage the exchange rate in line with the disinflation process.

"I believe that $1,800 could be reached more towards next year. For the remainder of the year, I estimate that the exchange rate would slide at a pace similar to that of inflation, given that the Government would seek to preserve the disinflation objective, and in that sense, it is important to maintain exchange rate calm," he noted.

His projection places the official dollar near $1,650 by December.

Meanwhile, the market continues to absorb the recent improvement in Argentina's sovereign rating by Moody's, which upgraded the rating from Caa1 to B3 and changed the outlook from stable to positive, aligning with previous decisions made by Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings.

Despite the positive signals on the local front, the international scenario remains the main focus of attention for investors.

The escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, and the strong rebound in oil keep caution high regarding emerging assets.

At the same time, private consulting firms highlight that the slowdown in inflation and positive real rates continue to favor carry trade and sustain interest in peso-denominated instruments, a dynamic that the Government seeks to preserve while attempting to consolidate exchange rate stability.

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