Door-to-door imports quadrupled their share of clothing and electronics sales, with prices up to 54% lower

The share of "door-to-door imports" in total sales of goods such as clothing or electronics has quadrupled in the last two years. While purchases related to production are declining, those linked to consumption continue to rise. In this context, specialists emphasize that courier purchases affect retail trade, already hit by the low purchasing power of the Argentine population.

According to a report by the consulting firm Analytica, "what is imported month by month through postal services represents around 40% of what is sold in clothing, sports items, electronics, furniture, decoration, and toys in the more than 70 shopping centers (over 6,000 businesses) surveyed by INDEC in the nationwide shopping center survey, when in 2024 it was less than 10%."

"You have a double effect. On one hand, the facilitation of regulations for courier imports and the greater digitalization of the economy (which raises the numerator). But also, previously the sales volume in those stores surveyed by INDEC was much higher (which lowers the denominator)," explained Claudio Caprarulo, the director of the consulting firm, in a conversation with Ámbito.

It is worth noting that sales in supermarkets of the analyzed product group were, between January and May of this year, 23.5% lower than in the same period of 2023. Likewise, the collapse in shopping malls was 12.3%.

From Analytica, they maintained that part of this decline is generated by the greater penetration of "door-to-door imports". "By avoiding commercial intermediation, door-to-door purchases capture part of a demand that was already weakened. In this way, they add to the stagnation of real incomes and consumer credit, the two main factors explaining the current weakness of consumption," they elaborated on the matter.

The mentioned report emphasized that it is the weakness of domestic demand that is the main determinant of the poor performance in sectors such as commerce or manufacturing, which are the ones that generate the most employment. However, it also did not underestimate the effect of trade openness.

Imports associated with production are falling, while those linked to consumption are growing.

In this sense, it recalled that "the quantities imported of consumer goods, adjusted for the level of activity, are at historical highs", particularly highlighting records in clothing and footwear, and in refrigerators and washing machines. "This year, the import of smartphones is being especially relevant, due to the elimination of tariffs that came into effect at the beginning of the year, with a 737% year-on-year increase in the first half. It multiplied nine times compared to the average between 2012 and 2023," added the entity led by Caprarulo.

It is worth clarifying that this import boom does not apply, so far in 2026, to intermediate goods or capital goods, which are more associated with the production needs of companies. Precisely, the economist from the Interdisciplinary Institute of Political Economy (IIEP) of UBA, Federico Bernini, indicated that, in July, total external purchases fell by 4% year-on-year, especially worrying is a 12% contraction in capital goods.

"The decline in imports, due to the recession and the reduction of stocks, was an important 'source' of dollars (in the first half), but everything indicates that this effect has come to an end, especially if the peso continues to appreciate. Imported consumer goods will increase the substitution of local products," predicted Jorge Carrera, an international finance specialist and former director of BCRA, on his social media.

The two sides of trade openness: collapse of national production, but improvement in prices.

The influx of imports in the mentioned consumer goods has two sides, one negative and one positive. On one hand, the deep crisis of national manufacturing; compared to the average of the last 10 years, the declines in electronics, textiles, and appliances range from -40% to almost -60%, while the average decline in the manufacturing industry is -9.3%.

A reflection of this deterioration was the 300 workers that the Mirgor Group laid off this week in Río Grande. Precisely, Tierra del Fuego is one of the provinces most affected by this economic, productive, and commercial model.

The flip side is the improvement in prices, in relation to other sectors. "Both appliances and clothing are registering their lowest relative prices since at least 2012. Compared to an average income recorded for a salaried worker, acquiring an appliance is 54.3% more accessible than in November 2023, and clothing is 36.8% more accessible," the report pointed out.

According to Analytica, the benefits of these lower prices are more utilized by middle and high-income sectors than by those households with lower purchasing power. This is because the latter tend to allocate a larger proportion of their income to food or urgent expenses such as bills and rents, which have become more expensive compared to clothing and durable goods exposed to competition from imported products.

"Beyond its effects on consumers, this change in relative prices also reflects a transformation in the competitive environment that will likely transcend the current situation," warned the consultancy and cautioned for the future: "Segments with less product differentiation and higher relative costs will be the most exposed to trade opening, while companies that manage to improve their productivity, strengthen their brands, differentiate their offerings, or specialize in specific niches will be in better conditions to maintain their market share.",

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