U.S. Diesel Crack Spread Surpasses $100, Impact of Russian Refinery Supply Disruptions

The U.S. diesel crack spread has exceeded $100 per barrel, highlighting the bottlenecks in the refined oil market. On the 17th, it surged to $102.20, marking an all-time high, and was analyzed at $99.125 as of the 19th. The crack spread represents the margin between refined oil prices and crude oil costs, indicating that the sharp rise in diesel crack is due to refining capacity and finished product shortages. This supply pressure is attributed to disruptions in Russian refining and supply uncertainties in the Middle East. According to S&P Global, Russia's maritime exports of petroleum products fell to 1.18 million barrels per day in July, reaching a record low. The processing of Russian crude oil has decreased due to attacks in Ukraine, and the operational disruptions at refineries are coinciding with the drop in exports. Russia has implemented a ban on the export of gasoline, diesel, ship fuel, and gas oil from August 1 to January 31, 2027, while allowing exceptions for direct exports by refining companies starting September 1. Simultaneously, Russia is importing refined oil from Asia, interpreted as a measure to address domestic shortages. In Europe, the diesel shortage is also altering price structures, and Goldman Sachs has warned of ongoing price risks due to the scarcity of diesel in the winter.

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