Three-Stage Negotiation: LLA Outlines Strategy to Avoid PASO Next Year

There is one week left of winter recess in Congress, and with Karina Milei at the helm, the ruling party is preparing to gather votes and advance with political reform. In the Casa Rosada, they have already outlined the strategy to gain the support of 14 governors: they envision a negotiation in three stages. What are the bargaining chips?

The government of La Libertad Avanza is confident that something will happen regarding the PASO. There is more than a year until the presidential elections. However, while Javier Milei is focused on the economic reforms that will be debated in Congress, Karina Milei's faction is working on the libertarian's reelection.

In this sense, the ruling party is confident that they have 13 governors plus the head of the Buenos Aires government, Jorge Macri. However, they acknowledge that while the President's sister intends to eliminate the PASO, as established in the project sent to the Senate, it is a difficult goal to achieve. Among the provincial governors, even among those closest to the Casa Rosada, there are nuances.

Therefore, while they aim to eliminate the Primaries at most, they minimally aspire for the primaries to be optional -- both for candidates and for voters. The middle option is to repeat what happened in the 2025 elections, suspending the primaries.

The motivations of the purple party to eliminate this instance are abundant. It is clear that the main one, and the ruling party admits it quietly without hesitation, is to "disperse the left". The greater the number of candidates, the more favorable the outlook becomes for the Mileis. In other words, "divide and conquer". They envision a scenario similar to that of 2003, when there were numerous candidates, although Carlos Menem did not manage to win in the first round. For that, at a minimum, the candidate needs to win by 40 points and have the second candidate more than 10 points behind.

But the elimination of the primaries also fuels the libertarian narrative. On one hand, it was one of Milei's campaign promises -- even though he arrived with the current system in place. The argument they give is that citizens should not finance, with their taxes, "the problems of politics". This point goes hand in hand with the second libertarian slogan: "there is no money". Suspending the primaries represents significant savings (from a libertarian perspective) for the state coffers. Although the figures vary depending on the interlocutor, they speak of nearly U$S 250,000.

Finally, they observe -- through focus groups -- that Argentines "do not want to go vote". With so many instances in the same year (it should be noted that most governors will stagger provincial elections), the lack of motivation could translate into lower participation at the polls. And this could mean fewer votes for LLA and benefit other political forces that have a more mobilized electorate.

Negotiations with the Governors

The perception within the libertarian ranks is that there is a reelectionist spirit. Of the 14 governors that the Casa Rosada claims will support, through their deputies and senators, the modification of the PASO, only one cannot run for reelection: Alfredo Cornejo. In Mendoza, there is no reelection.

The reading they make in the purple party is simple: the governors are waiting for Milei to continue making the adjustments. Thus, the libertarian would pave the way for the president who takes office in 2031. But with an extra reading: the ruling party itself acknowledges that the significant investments promoted by policies like the RIGI would only arrive in 2030. Again: it would be the next president who would benefit from Milei's policies.

With this reading, the government begins to outline the strategy to gather votes in the Senate first and in the Chamber of Deputies later. The task is led by Diego Santilli, Chief of Cabinet, and the main link with provincial governors. And by Patricia Bullrich, head of the government bloc in the Senate.

Negotiations in Three Stages

Negotiations between the Casa Rosada and the governors will unfold in three stages. The first bargaining chip will be resources and works. Since arriving at the Casa Rosada, the government has been leveraging the needs of provincial governors. Political reform, it is clear, will not be the exception. They will exchange votes for money, which governors will take advantage of in an election year to pursue their re-election.

The second stage of negotiation will revolve around the "platform," they say in libertarian ranks. In this sense, they refer to whether or not collector lists will be implemented in the Single Paper Ballot, so that more than one list of candidates for deputies or senators can be linked to the same presidential candidate.

Finally, the third card of negotiation with the governors will be the discussion about candidates, which will be finalized next year. Here, governors will need to have some faith. Although, they clarify in the government, there will be differences regarding 2025, when the government bet on "purism" in all districts.

"We had to gather our own deputies and senators to sustain presidential vetoes," libertarian sources explain. It is worth remembering that, in the event of a presidential veto, if Congress decides to insist, a third is enough to shield it. The same proportion is required to block an impeachment trial that could lead to the president's removal.

Next year, LLA's goal will be quite different from that of 2025: they do not aspire to strengthen their position in Congress (they already are), but rather for Milei to be re-elected. In other words, there are more chances that the violets will seal agreements with provincial forces, instead of "planting candidates".

In any case, a "busy August" is coming in Congress and in the Casa Rosada, so that before the end of the year, the president's sister has resolved how to clear the way for her re-election.

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